Comparative performance analysis of rating systems in junior and collegiate tennis
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
This paper analyzes the performance of two tennis rating systems—Universal Tennis Rating (UTR) and World Tennis Number (WTN)—in forecasting match outcomes in junior and collegiate tennis tournaments occurring after the September 2024 update to WTN. Results indicate no statistically significant difference in performance accuracy between UTR and WTN in junior tennis. However, in men’s collegiate tennis, UTR demonstrates an advantage over WTN in predictive performance. In addition, interaction terms in select models show that the positive effects of a rating advantage on a player’s probability of winning are mitigated in matches featuring higher-rated competitors. These findings highlight the importance of using evaluation metrics that are most relevant to a specific context and underscore the role of sports analytics in promoting fairness in competitive tennis.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
References
Bodo, P. (2018, April 4). A look at a possible new, streamlined tennis ranking system. ESPN. Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/23027866/a-look-possible-new-streamlined-tennis-ranking-system
Delong, E. R., Delong, D. M., and Clarke-Pearson, D.L. (1988) Comparing the areas under two or more correlated receiver operating characteristic curves: A nonparametric approach. Biometrics, 44(3), 837-45. https://doi.org/10.2307/2531595 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2531595
Elo, A. E. (1978). The rating of chess players: Past and present. Ishi Press.
Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA). (2025, July 10). Latest men's world ranking. Inside FIFA. Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://inside.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men
Franks, A. M., D'Amour, A., Cervone, D., & Bornn, L. (2016). Meta-analytics: Tools for understanding the statistical properties of sports metrics. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 12(4). https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2016-0098 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2016-0098
Glickman, M. (1995). The Glicko system. Boston University.
Glickman, M. (2012). Example of the Glicko-2 system. Boston University.
Im, S., & Lee, C.-H. (2023). World Tennis Number: The new gold standard, or a failure?. ITF Coaching & Sport Science Review, 31(91), 6-12. https://doi.org/10.52383/itfcoaching.v32i91.371 DOI: https://doi.org/10.52383/itfcoaching.v32i91.371
Intercollegiate Tennis Association (ITA). (2023a, January 5). Intercollegiate Tennis Association adopts ITF World Tennis Number as exclusive official rating for college tennis. ITA. Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://wearecollegetennis.com/2023/01/05/wtn-named-official-rating-of-college-tennis/
Intercollegiate Tennis Association (ITA). (2023b, November 16). ITA Rankings explained. ITA. Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://wearecollegetennis.com/ita-rankings/rankings-explained/
Intercollegiate Tennis Association (ITA). (2024a, September 21). DI (65 or more players): 2024 ITA Men's All-American Championships. ITA. Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://colleges.wearecollegetennis.com/Competitions/ITA/Tournaments/draws/D1CB8036-87C4-4CBD-B968-929D4500BD0E
Intercollegiate Tennis Association (ITA). (2024b, November 25). ITA Division I Sectional Championships. ITA. Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://wearecollegetennis.com/2024/11/25/2024-ita-division-i-sectional-championships/
International Tennis Federation (ITF). (2022, September 5). The science behind ITF World tennis number. World Tennis Number. Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://worldtennisnumber.com/eng/news/the-science-behind-itf-world-tennis-number
International Tennis Federation (ITF). (2024, August 19). Enhancement to the ITF world tennis number calculation. Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://worldtennisnumber.com/eng/news/enhancement-to-the-itf-world-tennis-number-calculation
Krall, N., Maroulis, N., Mayew, R., & Mayew, W. (2024). Initial evidence on the impact of the 2023 World Tennis Number algorithm change for predicting match outcomes. ITF Coaching & Sport Science Review, 32(94), 52-58. https://doi.org/10.52383/itfcoaching.v32i94.559 DOI: https://doi.org/10.52383/itfcoaching.v32i94.559
McNemar, Q. (1947). Note on the sampling error of the difference between correlated proportions or percentages. Psychometrika, 12(2):153-7. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02295996 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02295996
Mayew, R. L., & Mayew, W. J. (2023). Which global tennis rating better measures player skill? Evidence from the 2022 USTA Junior National Championships. The Sport Journal. Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://thesportjournal.org/article/which-global-tennis-rating-better-measures-player-skill-evidence-from-the-2022-usta-junior-national-championships/
National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA). (2023). Trends in the participation of International Student-Athletes in NCAA Divisions I and II. Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/research/demographics/2023RES_ISATrendsDivSprt.pdf
Oliva-Lozano, J. M., Vidal, M., Yousefian, F., Cost, R. & Gabbett, T. J. (2025). Predicting the Match Outcome in the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup and Analysis of Influential Features. Journal of Human Kinetics, 98, 169-182. https://doi.org/10.5114/jhk/195563 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5114/jhk/195563
Stefani, R. (2011). The methodology of officially recognized international sports rating systems. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 7(4). https://doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1347 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1347
United States Tennis Association (USTA). (2024a, November 29). Level 1: Boys 16's National Indoor Championships. Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://playtennis.usta.com/Competitions/xs-tennis-inc/Tournaments/overview/22FDB77E-53A1-41EA-87FD-0746C6C4BF89
United States Tennis Association (USTA). (2024b, November 29). Level 1: Boys' 18 USTA National Indoor Championships. Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://playtennis.usta.com/OPRC/Tournaments/overview/425A9B9D-5D9C-480B-9FD5-02F8837F34FD
United States Tennis Association (USTA). (2024c, December 28). Level 1: USTA National Winter Championships (BG16-18). Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://playtennis.usta.com/Competitions/USTANatlcampus/Tournaments/overview/A7F1E626-903A-4787-88C4-7C6B2044427A
United States Tennis Association (USTA). (2022, June 9). USTA launches ITF World Tennis Number widget online. Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://www.usta.com/en/home/stay-current/national/usta-launches-itf-world-tennis-number-widget-online.html
Universal Tennis Rating (UTR). (2023, December 19). How UTR rating works. UTR Sports. Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://www.utrsports.net/blogs/news/how-utr-works
Universal Tennis Rating (UTR). (2024, September 18). FAQ: UTR Rating algorithm. UTR Sports. Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://support.universaltennis.com/en/support/solutions/articles/9000233354-faq-utr-rating-algorithm
Universal Tennis Rating (UTR). (2025). Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://app.utrsports.net/home
World Tennis Number (WTN). (n.d.). Frequently asked questions. ITF World Tennis Number. Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://worldtennisnumber.com/eng/faq
World Tennis Number (WTN). (2023, July 7). Notification of enhancement to the ITF World Tennis Number algorithm calculation. ITF World Tennis Number. Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://worldtennisnumber.com/eng/news/notification-of-enhancement-to-the-itf-world-tennis-number-algorithm-calculation
World Tennis Number (WTN). (2025). Search Players. Retrieved from [Accessed 2026, 12 February]: https://worldtennisnumber.com/eng/player-search/